What the weight-loss trials found
8 trials · 15,462 people
Everyone asks the same question: how much weight do you lose? The trials answer it, and the answer is not the one in the advertising. People in the placebo group lose weight too — so the drug's real effect is the difference between the two bars, not the height of one.
Topline figures from a press release. Not published in a peer-reviewed journal, and therefore not comparable with the rows above.
[source] — TRIUMPH-1, Eli Lilly 2026The range is three separate dose arms, not an uncertainty interval.
[source] — SURMOUNT-1, NEJM 2022This result is kagrilintide COMBINED with semaglutide. The monotherapy arm (302 participants) has no reported result.
[source] — REDEFINE 1, NEJM 2025The comparator is semaglutide, not placebo — hence the small gap.
[source] — SURMOUNT-5, NEJM 202550.5% reached at least 15% weight loss, against 4.9% on placebo.
[source] — STEP 1, NEJM 2021Only 233 of 386 participants (60.4%) completed the treatment period.
[source] — Fas 2, Lancet D&E 2024Reported in kilograms rather than percent, and therefore not directly comparable with the rows above.
[source] — SCALE, NEJM 2015
Both groups are drawn, because the drug's real effect is the gap between them — not the height of the whole bar. These are group averages from the cited trials and say nothing about what any one person would lose.